Tuesday, November 23, 2004

2008 Election

Question: Now that the 2004 presidential election is over, what are your thoughts about the wide-open 2008 election? How unusual is that in U.S. history? Are you predicting who the Democratic and Republican nominees might be?
From: Larry G. of Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 23, 2004

Gleaves answers: The 2008 election is going to be interesting. As you note, it will be an open presidential election since President George W. Bush cannot run for re-election, and Vice President Dick Cheney will not run for election.

OPEN ELECTIONS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE 20th CENTURY

In American history, the wide-open presidential race has become uncommon; it is unusual for neither the sitting president nor vice president to be on the ballot. In fact, it has been more than a half century since the last open race for president. The last open race occurred in 1952, when President Harry S. Truman, discouraged by depressingly low approval ratings because of the Korean War, declined to run for re-election; nor did his vice president, Alban Barkley, run. (Perhaps the most memorable thing Barkley ever said was, "The best audience is one that is intelligent, well-educated -- and a little drunk.") In 1952 Republicans Dwight Eisenhower and running mate Richard Nixon won.

Open elections used to be more common. During the first half of the twentieth century, there were four (of 14 elections held during that period). The 1928 election was an open presidential contest. Calvin Coolidge did not seek re-election, nor did Charles Dawes. Republicans Herbert Hoover and running mate Charles Curtis succeeded them.

Prior to that, the 1920 election was an open contest. Woodrow Wilson was too sick to run, and Thomas Marshall did not run either. Republicans Warren Harding and running mate Calvin Coolidge succeeded the Democrats.

The 1908 election was another open contest. Theodore Roosevelt and Charles Fairbanks were not on the ballot. Republicans William Howard Taft and James Sherman succeeded that duo.

Note that in each of the four open elections in the twentieth century, the Republican ticket won.

OPEN ELECTIONS IN THE 19th CENTURY

The first presidential race in U.S. history was technically open, but it was a foregone conclusion that George Washington, the hero of the War for Independence and president of the Constitutional Convention, was a shoo-in. So the 1789 election doesn't really count, nor does the 1792 election in which Washington was unanimously re-elected.

Historically, the first open presidential election occurred in 1808, when the Democratic-Republican James Madison was elected to succeed Thomas Jefferson. Madison had served as Jefferson's secretary of state. But even in this instance a qualification is in order, since Jefferson's vice president, George Clinton, was re-elected to serve as Madison's vice president. (It has happened only twice in U.S. history that a new president would be elected when the vice president would be the same. See yesterday's Ask Gleaves answer to find out which other vice president shares this distinction.)

Now, the first election in U.S. history in which both the office of president and vice president were wide open was 1816. That's when Democratic-Republicans James Monroe and Daniel Tompkins were voted into office.

The next time an open election took place was in the bizarre election of 1824, which saw John Quincy Adams win the White House even though initially he received enough votes neither in the Electoral College nor in the popular vote.

Other open elections in the 19th century occurred in the years before and after the Lincoln administration: in 1844, 1848, 1852, and 1856; and in 1868, 1876, 1884, and 1896. In the nineteenth-century, all told, there were 11 open presidential elections (out of 25 elections) -- in other words, almost half of all electons during the first century of our nation's existence were wide open.

ASSESSMENT

Wide-open elections for president used to be fairly common. The diminution of a once-strong pattern is striking:
- in the 19th century, 11 of 25 presidential elections were wide open;
- in the first half of the 20th century, 4 of 14 presidential elections were wide open;
- in the second half of the 20 century, 0 of 11 presidential elections were wide open.

Obviously the trend over the past half century has been for the party in office to encourage the president to run again or to groom the vice president to run for the top spot. Gone are the days, it seems, when a Polk (1845-1849) or a Coolidge (1923-1929), having achieved all their major goals, would be content to serve as president only one term.

Another trend emerges when one inquires which party tends to do better in open elections (counting from 1856, when Republicans first appeared on the national scene to compete against Democrats). In sum:
- In the second half of the 19th century, the Republican ticket won three of five open elections.
- In the first half of the 20th century, the Republican ticket won four of four open elections.
- In all, since 1856, Republicans have won seven of nine open presidential contests against Democrats.

Regarding who might run in 2008, I'd humbly submit that it's a bit early to be making predictions -- I am going to stick to history, not prophesy. But watch to see if 2008 will be the first time since 1976 that a person named Bush or Dole will not be on the Republican ticket.

Regarding the Democrats in 2008, see if they don't look south of the Mason-Dixon line for their candidate. As presidential scholar Mark Rozell observes, "In the past 40 years, the Democrats have won the White House only with a Southern Baptist at the head of the ticket.... For 2008, the lesson for the Democrats seems clear: In seeking a party nominee, go south. Even more so, go south to a candidate with credibility and appeal among the region's heavy doses of evangelical and pro-military voters."[1]

Stay tuned.

_______________________________

[1]Mark J. Rozell, "Look to the South for a Nominee," Washington Post, November 11, 2004, p. A8.

143 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good afternoon many have machines which not insuranced,
you have a unique opportunity only today to receive insurance the machine free of charge
auto insurance
auto insurance
cars insurance
cars insurance
texas car insurance
texas car insurance
car insurance quotes
car insurance quotes
car insurance policy
car insurance policy
xanax
phentermine
buy tramadol

Anonymous said...

Hi people
I do not know what to give for Christmas of the to friends, advise something ....

Anonymous said...

Hello. Good day
Who listens to what music?
I Love songs Justin Timberlake and Paris Hilton

Anonymous said...

Mmm my sweety private weblink collection. I hope you enjoy it !
ass parade
naruto xxx





------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
About Christmas
merry christmas

Anonymous said...

xanax
phentermine
buy tramadol
big breast
merry christmas
ass parade
naruto xxx
auto insurance
auto insurance
cars insurance
cars insurance
texas car insurance
texas car insurance
car insurance quotes
car insurance quotes
car insurance policy
car insurance policy

Anonymous said...

Hello.


I Want to divid with you medicine which rescue the lifes of peoples. These tablets rescued not one groups
of ten peoples. If you not don't care fates of the sick people that, please not deletes this message.
This message can read the person who these preparations rescue the life!!!!

Penis Growth Patch Rx
Ultra Allure Pheromones
Anatrim
Advanced Gain Pro Pills
Regenisis HGH

Anonymous said...

The Ring ,where you disappeared? Call to me fast!
- www.blogger.com 5
samsung ringtone
motorola ringtone
sony ericsson ringtone
nokia ringtone

Anonymous said...

I am really excited! This will be my first time visiting, good stuff. Very useful. Enjoyed the visit!
- askgleaves.blogspot.com z
07 car civic honda
buy used car
car undefined used
used car bergen
used car oakland
used car greensboro
used car raleigh
used car killeen
used car vallejo
used car tacoma

Anonymous said...

Hi all!
Do not delete it please. I need money urgent
















Bye

Anonymous said...

Hi
Do not delete it please. I need money urgent
















G'night

Anonymous said...

diet
diet pill
diet plan
diabetic diet
diet phentermine
diet food
diet hoodia pill
best diet pill
adipex diet pill
diet program
weight loss
weight loss pill
weight loss tip
fast weight loss
natural weight loss
weight loss plan
easy weight loss
low cholesterol diet
diet supplemental
weight loss program
weight loss meridia
weight loss drug

Anonymous said...

Au revoir, good luck in your business!
- www.blogger.com r
http://mosquitoringtone1.4x2.net mosquito ringtone
http://freenokiaringtone1.4x2.net free nokia ringtone
http://freeverizonringtone1.4x2.net free verizon ringtone
http://mp3ringtone1.4x2.net mp3 ringtone
http://nokiaringtone1.4x2.net nokia ringtone
http://freemotorolaringtone1.4x2.net free motorola ringtone
http://freemp3ringtone1.4x2.net free mp3 ringtone
http://samsungringtone1.4x2.net samsung ringtone
http://freepolyphonicringtone1.4x2.net free polyphonic ringtone
http://britneyspearsringtone1.4x2.net britney spears ringtone

Anonymous said...

Ok I love Britney all the same but this time shes gone too far. Read the story below. This is from the Official Britney Spears Site.


britneycarnudespear

Anonymous said...

Ok I love Britney all the same but this time shes gone too far. Read the story below. This is from the Official Britney Spears Site.


britneycarnudespear

Buy Levitra said...

Great article! Thanks.

Phentermine said...

Thanks for interesting article.

Anonimous said...

Nice! Nice site! Good resources here. I will bookmark!

Maxwells said...

I see first time your site guys. I like you :)

Anonimous said...

Excellent website. Good work. Very useful. I will bookmark!

PaydayLoans said...

V58PWb You have a talant! Write more!

Auto insurance company said...

MPUaO5 actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm going to pass that on to a couple of people.

Hydrocodone said...

tNd77g The best blog you have!

ea davies insurance northern ireland said...

MovKZ1 Wonderful blog.

allied tour pro said...

Nice Article.

fioricet headache medicine said...

Magnific!

side affects of celebrex said...

actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm going to pass that on to a couple of people.

buy phentermine tablets buy phentermine said...

Please write anything else!

buy xenical for less than said...

Thanks to author.

2737 allegra amerimedr said...

Hello all!

lethal dosage xanax said...

actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm going to pass that on to a couple of people.

cheap phentermine buy pharmacy online now said...

Nice Article.

JohnBraun said...

RJXWuG write more, thanks.

countrygirl story sex said...

Magnific!

doll make sex said...

Wonderful blog.

animal toons sex said...

Nice Article.

lesbian naked sex said...

Thanks to author.

household anal said...

Nice Article.

sex and hardcore said...

Thanks to author.

ebony sex partys said...

Nice Article.

outdoor sex videw said...

actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm going to pass that on to a couple of people.

beach video sex said...

actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm going to pass that on to a couple of people.

bareback sex clips said...

Wonderful blog.

craxy sex videos said...

Hello all!

horny sex experiences said...

actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm going to pass that on to a couple of people.

pretty plumpers sex said...

Please write anything else!

malaysian sex forum said...

Magnific!

nichola holt sex said...

I don't suffer from insanity. I enjoy every minute of it.

doctor free sex said...

Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine.

free hardcore porn downloads said...

Clap on! , Clap off! clap@#&$NO CARRIER

bottems bum sex said...

All generalizations are false, including this one.

bolocco oral sex said...

The gene pool could use a little chlorine.

alaska sex ads said...

Hello all!

inuyasha sex show said...

Good job!

hyzaar dissolution said...

Calvin, we will not have an anatomically correct snowman!

cialis eye floaters said...

Clap on! , Clap off! clap@#&$NO CARRIER

irish sex sites said...

Please write anything else!

bitch porn sex said...

Beam me aboard, Scotty..... Sure. Will a 2x10 do?

german public sex said...

When there's a will, I want to be in it.

asian bed sex said...

Good job!

all fisting sex said...

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

sex at 55 said...

Magnific!

demo clip sex said...

Lottery: A tax on people who are bad at math.

onegai twins sex said...

Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine.

clonazepam serotonin said...

640K ought to be enough for anybody. - Bill Gates 81

name said...

Suicidal twin kills sister by mistake!

florida porn law said...

actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm going to pass that on to a couple of people.

rent porn studio said...

640K ought to be enough for anybody. - Bill Gates 81

amutear porn said...

A flashlight is a case for holding dead batteries.

lesbian sex videos said...

Build a watch in 179 easy steps - by C. Forsberg.

auburn haired sex said...

Build a watch in 179 easy steps - by C. Forsberg.

free spanking porn videos said...

Wonderful blog.

disney belle jasmin porn said...

What is a free gift ? Aren't all gifts free?

guji porn punjab said...

Save the whales, collect the whole set

canine anal gland removal said...

Save the whales, collect the whole set

freeoral sex videos said...

Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine.

porn sex said...

Good job!

hardcore sex comic said...

Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

imitrex d0 b8 said...

Wonderful blog.

centaur sex stories said...

When there's a will, I want to be in it.

pokemon sex fanfiction said...

Oops. My brain just hit a bad sector.

british sex free said...

Lottery: A tax on people who are bad at math.

ceaser sex machien said...

Energizer Bunny Arrested! Charged with battery.

forced anal sex said...

Beam me aboard, Scotty..... Sure. Will a 2x10 do?

jackie moore porn star said...

What is a free gift ? Aren't all gifts free?

indie sex censored said...

Please write anything else!

wicked girls porn said...

Magnific!

jos and sex said...

Suicidal twin kills sister by mistake!

porn sex violent said...

Energizer Bunny Arrested! Charged with battery.

barebacking bear sex videos xxx hot bareb said...

A lot of people mistake a short memory for a clear conscience.

teen sex storys said...

actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm going to pass that on to a couple of people.

cheerleader porn said...

Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies

masturbation guide anal play said...

Energizer Bunny Arrested! Charged with battery.

personnel sex clips said...

Oops. My brain just hit a bad sector.

cheap phentermine no prescription said...

If ignorance is bliss, you must be orgasmic.

phentermine for less said...

A lot of people mistake a short memory for a clear conscience.

buy phentermine fast delivery best prices said...

Build a watch in 179 easy steps - by C. Forsberg.

Anonymous said...

viagra online viagra for women online - viagra cialis levitra

Anonymous said...

viagra online without prescription cheap viagra online canadian pharmacy - buy viagra online in nz

Anonymous said...

generic viagra generic viagra 100mg reviews - order viagra online overnight delivery

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol online tramadol hcl 50 mg canine - tramadol withdrawal symptoms dizziness

Anonymous said...

buy soma online soma underwear online shop - buy soma online us pharmacy

Anonymous said...

buy soma soma drug street price - buy somatropin online usa

Anonymous said...

buy soma soma muscle relaxer narcotic - buy cheap soma no prescription

Anonymous said...

buy soma online best buy soma - soma online texas

Anonymous said...

soma without prescription generic soma pill identification - buy soma online without rx

Anonymous said...

buy soma soma san diego mainstage - jeffree star soma san diego

Anonymous said...

buy soma discontinued soma bras - soma 70.3

Anonymous said...

buy soma soma drug history - soma online pharmacy

Anonymous said...

cialis online cialis price rise - cialis promise program

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol tramadol xr dosage - tramadol 50mg tablets for dogs

Anonymous said...

buy cialis online buy cialis online us - cialis online+toronto

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol medication tramadol 50mg no prescription - tramadol hcl er 200 mg tab

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol online buy tramadol ultram - high does tramadol get you

Anonymous said...

cheap tramadol online buy tramadol online us pharmacy - tramadol addiction constipation

Anonymous said...

buy cialis online generic cialis made in us - buy cialis drugstore

Anonymous said...

order tramadol online cod tramadol street price - generic tramadol online

Anonymous said...

xanax buy buy xanax online cheap no prescription - xanax no prescription no membership

Anonymous said...

generic xanax xanax 2mg red - xanax vicodin

Anonymous said...

xanax depression xanax bars under tongue - xanax veterinary dosage

Anonymous said...

generic xanax where to buy alprazolam - xanax withdrawal high blood pressure

Anonymous said...

carisoprodol 350 mg carisoprodol dosage maximum - carisoprodol buy online

Anonymous said...

generic xanax xanax dosage grasscity - xanax generic 029

Anonymous said...

buy xanax online no rx buy xanax sticks - how much xanax recreational use

Anonymous said...

buy carisoprodol online carisoprodol zulassung - 350 mg carisoprodol generic soma

Anonymous said...

generic xanax valium vs xanax effects - xanax withdrawal jaw pain

Anonymous said...

generic xanax alprazolam 0 5mg efeitos colaterais - xanax for anxiety and panic attacks

Anonymous said...

buy carisoprodol carisoprodol abuse potential withdrawal syndrome - carisoprodol naproxen

Anonymous said...

buy carisoprodol soma carisoprodol back pain - carisoprodol nursing implications

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol without a script generic tramadol 200mg - buy tramadol online no prescription usa

Anonymous said...

buy carisoprodol does carisoprodol 350 mg contain aspirin - soma carisoprodol schedule

Anonymous said...

cialis online compare price cialis viagra - buy real cialis no prescription

Anonymous said...

where can i buy xanax online legally is xanax a schedule 4 drug - xanax recreational use dose

Anonymous said...

learn how to buy tramdadol tramadol withdrawal youtube - tramadol withdrawal leg pain

Anonymous said...

http://landvoicelearning.com/#97734 tramadol for dogs long term use - tramadol addiction helpline

Anonymous said...

http://landvoicelearning.com/#44827 buy cheap tramadol online - deal tramadol addiction

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol tramadol hcl 50 mg does it get you high - tramadol long term side effects

Anonymous said...

buy klonopin online klonopin side effects rash - klonopin 2mg high

Anonymous said...

http://buytramadolonlinecool.com/#28875 tramadol hcl 50 mg tablet - next day tramadol review

Anonymous said...

http://landvoicelearning.com/#21906 tramadol for dogs can humans take it - tramadol zydol 50mg

Anonymous said...

carisoprodol 350 mg carisoprodol 350 mg get you high - carisoprodol online pharmacy

Anonymous said...

buy carisoprodol c o d carisoprodol hydrocodone erowid - soma carisoprodol erowid

Anonymous said...

carisoprodol 350 mg carisoprodol and pregnancy - carisoprodol drug abuse

Anonymous said...

http://southcarolinaaccidentattorney.com/#61879 carisoprodol generic name - carisoprodol zulassung